(SAN FRANCISCO, CA) - In 2026, public school enrollment fell 1.3%, or by 74,961 students, seven times more than the predicted enrollment decrease of 10,000 students.
Photo Credit: California Department of Education and EdSource Data Analysis
Education officials attribute the decline to lower birth rates and fewer immigrants living in the state.
California's total fertility rate dropped from 2.21 children per woman in 2007 to 1.48 in 2023, which falls below the replacement rate. However, California’s falling birth rate is largely driven by a drop in teen birth rates - which have cratered by 86% since 1991.
California's net international immigration dropped by over 50% to roughly 126,000 residents, helping drive the state's first population decline in three years.
Photo Credit: EdSource
Hispanic students, who make up 56% of the California student body, saw the largest drop in enrollment by 48,064.
The number of English learners also dropped by 8.2%, although the decline could be attributed, in part, to students being reclassified as proficient in English.
Los Angeles County lost 32,953 students, more than half of whom were from the Los Angeles Unified School District. The 2.6% decline in county enrollment accounted for 43% of the state’s loss.
However, finances also play a role in enrollment. Julie Van Winkle, vice president of United Teachers Los Angeles, said she has seen families she taught leave Los Angeles for areas where they found housing more affordable.
David Goldberg, president of the California Teachers Association union, said a recent survey of their 300,000+ members across the state found that roughly 80% of them can’t live where they work.
Mafi, of Garden Grove Unified, said the lack of affordable housing has exacerbated the ongoing enrollment issue in her school district, too.
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