(OPGOV.NEWS, GLOBAL) --- Betting on a clinical trial is now a thing.
Even writing this new fact feels unethical, but the fact remains: the prediction platform Kalshi now makes it possible to bet on late-stage trial outcomes through a new app.
Rather than placing bets on sports, elections and weather as usual, Kalshi, an online gambling website, now allows wagers on human life outcomes, a disturbing notion to say the least.
(Photo credit: Pexels/Ravi Roshan)
The upcoming launch will include up to a dozen trials and U.S. Food and Drug Administration reviews, allowing participants to bet on the success of treatments.
Kalshi partners with AppliedXL on up to a dozen clinical trials, including those for cancer and Alzheimer’s disease. The app has drawn criticism from researchers and physicians who say “it could also influence patients, who may decide to withdraw or stay in a study based on betting odds rather than medical advice,” according to Forbes.
However, “Kalshi argues the markets will make public pharmaceutical information that is usually kept under lock and key,” available.
As noted by medical experts, betting on drug development raises serious ethical concerns. If a patient is less likely to believe in a trial based on the odds rather than on facts that could offer a longer, higher-quality lifespan, the betting becomes a life-or-death situation for the patient.
That is not the only ethical concern. A new group strategic advisor raises red flags.
(Photo: Kalshi website photo)
In 2025, Kashi named Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor to the group, now bringing politics into the matter. Calling the move a “milestone,” Kalshi touts the president’s son's credentials, reporting “with his extensive business experience and influence, Don Jr. brings a fresh perspective to Kalshi as we continue to push prediction markets into the mainstream.”
A year later, there is a life-or-death betting app, further blurring the ethical lines already drawn by the Trump Administration, as seen since the family entered the White House. The New York Post proved the role was suspicious in 2026, informing the public of the $300K in shares Kashi gave Trump Jr. for sitting on the advisory board.
“Two months after his father retook the White House, Trump Jr. signed on as a strategic adviser to the company” the New York Post reports.” Announcing the move in a January 2025 post on X, he wrote that “while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used prediction market @Kalshi to know we had won hours ahead of the fake news media.”’
Placing a bet varies with FDA approvals, including “when compounds will be added to the bulk drug substances list and predictions about the date when camizestrant will be approved for use as a breast cancer treatment,” according to Health Exec.
Lastly, among all ethical concerns is the promotion of American betting, which will continue to create debt for the public, as reported by NPR.
“In states that allowed online betting, the study reported a 10% increase in the likelihood of bankruptcy and an 8% increase in debt collection,” NPR reports.
As for ethics and finances, NPR also reports up to 20 civil lawsuits over the group's legal status, with Arizona the first to allege criminal violations. The noted ethical concerns are just a few examples, but if you asked any patient fighting for their life in one of these trials, more would come up.
Just to get an idea: ask yourself, how would you feel if someone placed a bet on whether the success of a medical treatment you were receiving would add to their bank account? Add to that, the bettor is counting on the results, specifically the failure of the treatment, to fund a family vacation. So if you live, they don't go on vacation; hence, they are betting on your death so they can have a good time.
Does it feel ethical?
That’s your answer.
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